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Run It Once vs Run It Twice: Visualizing the Impact on Variance (Interactive Tool)

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Run It Once vs Run It Twice: Visualizing the Impact on Variance (Interactive Tool)

Hi everyone,

I built a small interactive tool to visualize how variance changes when you run boards multiple times in all-in situations.

🔗 https://runittwice.streamlit.app/

The simulator lets you adjust:

  • number of all-ins
  • equity
  • pot size
  • rake
  • run it once vs run it multiple times

It then shows the distribution of results in buy-ins, downside risk curves, and how the variance shrinks as you increase the number of runs while EV stays exactly the same.

My motivation for building this was that many players intuitively know that running it twice reduces variance, but it's hard to see how big the effect actually is over many all-ins. The tool makes it very clear.

For professionals especially, understanding this matters because:

  • lower variance → smoother bankroll trajectory
  • fewer extreme downswings
  • easier bankroll management
  • same EV

So the goal is partly educational: to help players visualize the statistical impact of running it twice (or more).

I'd really appreciate feedback from the community:

  • What features would make it more useful for studying variance?
  • Ideas for improvements or additional metrics?

If people find it useful I’m happy to keep improving it.

Thanks!

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