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An essential members Dunning Krugers effect - An introduction

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An essential members Dunning Krugers effect - An introduction

A picture is worth more than a thousand words so I will start with the current results and move on from there.


Current Results

I play micro stakes at BetRivers, a site fronted by the two Phil's, Galfond and Hellmuth. It uses anonymous avatars and names so using HUDs such as PT4 or HEM3 is not available during live play to the best of my knowledge. The site however does provide VPIP/PFR/3B and #hands on each oppnents avatar so you can have some insight into they're playing style/tendencies.

I started out with $250 deposit and managed to run that amount close to $1300 within the span of two months. I felt incredibly confident that I was making good plays, was being disciplined in my raises and folds but I now think it was all an illusion and I was just another fish on a heater with a dash of beginner's luck. I bought "From the ground up" course recently and am an essential member. I'm probably half-way through that crash course having just watched the first part of the "turn play" chapter. And ever since I began watching it I have been in a steady downfall.

Why?

A) Probably because the variance is coming back to get me.
B) I'm think my skill level is way better than what it obviously is and this new found knowledge is getting me overconfident.

So let's look at a few more pictures at the three various stakes I've played at.

5cent/10cent

10cent/20cent

25cent/50cent

The two most glaring things are probably the difference in the yellow and green lines betweent 5/10 and 10/20. One I'm well above and the other I'm fairly below. My red line in the 25/50 however is probably very abnormal and could be a telltale sign of my overly aggressive post-flop tendencies?

Here are the stats for all three stake levels:


Stats by stakes

I jot down certain hands into a notepad file when I'm playing that I'd like to revisit but so far I haven't reviewed any of them. Now my mental health is telling me: seek guideance and help. Improve, engage and and apply. So here I'm trying to create a new habit of posting regularly here seeking the knowledge of players who have yielded better results and will critique my play to bits. Besides saying "fold-pre" ;)

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