Crazy overbet on the River (deep stacks pre flop)
Posted by Schorle
Posted by
Schorle
posted in
Low Stakes
Crazy overbet on the River (deep stacks pre flop)
PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Pokeit - https://pokeit.co/convert
UTG: $8.71 (87 bb)
MP: $8.30 (83 bb)
CO: $25.55 (256 bb)
BU: $8.99 (90 bb)
SB: $9.63 (96 bb)
BB (Hero): $15.99 (160 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with Q♠ 9♠
2 players fold, CO raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20
Flop: ($0.95) J♦ T♠ 5♠ (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $0.56, Hero calls $0.56, CO calls $0.56
Turn: ($2.63) 4♥ (3 players)
Hero bets $1.06, CO raises to $2.70, BU folds, Hero calls $1.64
River: ($8.03) K♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $21.99 (all-in), Hero??
Some comments and thoughts:
Villain has 26/21 on only 19 hands. 3bet PF 20 %, WTSD: 33 %. So not much meaning in the stats.
Pre-Flop call in the BB with Q9 suited is pretty standard given the good pot odds (> 1:3).
The Flop comes in quite well as I have many outs to make a strong hand against all kind of ranges, so c/c is also pretty standard. Even c/r is an option, although a re-raise would put us on a real decision (re-raise probably only with top two, set or nut flush draw with straight outs like AJss).
Only critic would be the call oop without knowing COs (Villains) action after my call. But any raise from CO would also make a re-evaluation necessary.
The Turn is no real brick but also no real help to many of COs and BTNs range. Instead of c/c I decide to lead into both Villains hoping to put pressure on at least the CO b/c cold calling without closing the action (knowing BTNs reaction) is quite risky. Going 3way to the River is no nice outlook. Also with my 2/5 block bet I try to have get some pot control b/c I have no interest in calling a 3/4 or potsize bet OOP with only 3nd best flush and 2nd best straight draw. Plus I have some decent Fold Equity against possible hands in COs and BTNs range like KQ, AK, AQ, AT, 98 or also Q9.
The call of Villains (CO) light raise is pretty standard I guess. Folding (even OOP) is no option with 1:4 pot odds and re-raising with deep stacks and still quite high SPRs also not b/c I only get isolated against hands that crush me (sets especially but also Top two pair). However I have to keep in mind that I have also high reverse implied odds, when a spade occurs on the River given there is a certain chance Villain has a higher Flush draw like KQss, A4ss or AKss or other Ax ss combos). The SPR is getting low but there is still room for an exit.
The River looks quite nice as I finish my straight but only the 2nd nuts. I think about a small bet like 1/3 pot or max 1/2 pot to get the chance to fold If Villains raises me (depending on the size of the raise). However I assume Villain does not put me on a straight/flush draw combos but more on a pure Flush draw. This would mean a check to induce a bluff could be promising. Also Villain would bet hands in this spot that I would beat like sets or KJ, maybe even JT or AK.
Villains All-In-Raise totally suprises me. I think Villains shove shows a capped ranges (missed flush draw with 98ss, J9ss, 87ss, 76ss or total air, while last one is very very unlikely OR the Nuts with AQ). I think even KK would not jam in this spot on the river or only if he puts me on two pair.
One good reason to fold is the massive overbet (almost 3 x potsize) and my remaining stack of 12.40 USD. Having invested roughly 1/4 of my stack leaves me a real option to fold but what if Villain puts me only on a missed FD and does not have much either? Or would he Value bet thin with AK? Would he Jam with KJ?
The more I think about the spot the harder it gets whilst I am in the middle of the hand....(is must be the surprise factor of Villains shove which makes the decition extra spicy).
Thoughts anyone??
Thx in advance and happy to discuss!
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