Overplaying pocket pair or legit play (Deep stacks)?
Posted by Schorle
Posted by
Schorle
posted in
Low Stakes
Overplaying pocket pair or legit play (Deep stacks)?
UTG: $13.85 (139 bb)
MP: $19.82 (198 bb)
CO: $11.02 (110 bb)
BU (Hero): $17.05 (171 bb)
SB: $21.66 (217 bb)
BB: $9.64 (96 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with 9♣ 9♦
1 fold, MP raises to $0.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.25, 2 players fold
Flop: ($0.65) 6♠ 2♦ T♥ (2 players)
MP bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.80, MP calls $0.60
Turn: ($2.25) A♣ (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.88, MP calls $0.88
River: ($4.01) 7♠ (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $3.83, MP folds
Villain is 25/18 over 100 hands.
The Pre-Flop call is pretty standard, a 3bet every now and then may also be good to balance our 3bet ranges and also our call ranges.
On the Flop I deem my hand to be quite strong with Villains range having many broadways and also some high pocket pairs but also middle pocket pairs like 7s, 8s but also low pps. With monster hands he probably would just check to induce a bet as the Flop is quite dry and also rainbow.
Thus I decide to raise as I estimate a decent Fold Equity for most of Villains hands and also want to protect my hand.
Last but not least a call of Villain would increase the probability he has quite strong hands like AT, KT, JJ+ or in very few cases AK or AQ while he sees me bluffing or semi-bluffing with Suited connectors like 87, 98. In the case Villain has a quite strong hand, I could save money on further streets (fold to any substantial bet of Villain) or buy a Free card when the Turn gets checked to me (drawing for a runner runnner straight or a set).
The Turn should hit a fair amount of Villain's hands (over the half of his Flop calling range I guess). However there are still some hands like JJ, QQ, KK, KT which do not like the Ace. Checking behind would mean, Villain would probably go for the SD and play bet or c/c on the River. For a call on the River my hand has not enough value in most cases, especially on River cards like J, K, Q or T PLUS and a bet only on the River does not have much FE given the quite small pot compared to the Stacks; a bet would be very thin or without any Value. Also with another bet I could continue my story of either a set or AT for example. Plus a semi-bluff would be possible If I had a suited connector.
Eventually I decide to bet about 1/3 pot giving me a profitable play If Villain folds in about 1/4 of the cases. Plus I build up potential FE on some River cards as the stacks or quite big.
Villains call tells me two things: his hand is good enough to call but too weak to re-raise which he would do often with a monster or top two to protect his hand against some draws.
So the most likely hands are AK, AQ, AJ. - KQ, KJ or JJ, QQ, KK are less likely.
The 7 on the River does not help Villain obviously because if he had a monster (besides a straight, which is very unlikely because of my blockers) he would bet for anticipated Value as he should put me on something with SD-value.
On the other hand with my 9s I could try to rep a finished straight holding 98 which would also fit to my plays on Flop and Turn. Also 76 could be one of the more possible hands in my range.
As check behind is no real option if I want to win the pot, because against most of Vilains hands I am behind I decide to bet large (pot size - the amount of 4 USD displayed is with rake) also to rep a finished straight. The rationale is that Villain has a real decision to call with hands like AK, AQ, JJ+ (which are most likely IMO) if he does not put me on air (my potential bluffing range in this spot should be quite small).
To my satisfaction Villain folds the River after tanking.
Any thoughts ?
What is Villains most likely range in this spot?
Thx in advance!
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