RunItTw1ce

25 min depolar dynamic boards oop is a nice concept to build a pot, but not so big where your equity gets cut in half. Keep the range wide enough where you can still get 3 streets lf value for a medium size on bad run outs.

Starting this was a very predictable doomswitch-activator.

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20:30 J9s in the Co are you ever playing a flatting range if the rake is lower? Or the player opening is a fish?

15:30 I was going to ask on this 954hh board are you cbetting 2/3 as your only size because it's a low board? I wasn't sure if we should just be range betting across all textures where we get a lot of XC-XF on the turn and get some extra value when they float us wide. Or do you size up to prevent less XR?

Freenachos Thank you for the detailed break down and visuals for the MDA stuff above! You went above and beyond for your explanation.

The A4o hand is something I've been trying to understand a bit more of recently. Some times solver is using "over-under" to unblock draws and have the ability to river top pair. Other times as you show in your screenshot there are hands like 54s and 53s that are barreling pure air and not even a top pair draw.

The board I was studying a few days ago was a Q75-2 board where there was a lot of K8s, k6s, K4s, K3s, J8s, etc hands that were barreling "naked" on the turn. I thought these hands would barrel the river depending on what straight completed. For example on Q75-2-3 I thought hands like K6s would barrel a lot compared to a river such as Q75-2-T where there was no straight completing. But as I dug a little deeper K6s barreled more often on the "T" river just blocking KQ as one of the best hands in villain's range. Where top pair was making up 25% of villains XC-XC-XC range and blocking a straight was only 1.7% of villain's range. My main take away was that there is an over fold on the turn when barreling TP+, draws, and air. So even if it doesn't feel comfortable we should still pull the trigger with our air and just capture a larger pot share. Because the BXB line might be less profitable than a BBX line. Where we end up playing BXF pretty often when OOP leads the river.

If you could dive more into these airball bluffs and how they are playing on different rivers it would be much appreciated. I always thought it was some type of "Future bluff" when a flush or straight completes. Like Q75r-2dd. We often barrel hands like AJo ATo with a diamond in case a diamond falls on the river as a future bluff.

Ok double checking wizard the AJo and ATo are not barreling but you have a bunch of KJo KTo K9o with a diamond that barrel the turn as a future bluff and blockers to tpgk creating some extra FE.

For many years I was only barreling TPGK+ and draws on the turn. I didn't understand these airball bluffs and funneled them into a BXB line. I think players have a bigger fear on the turn of facing a triple barrel so the B-B- line might be more profitable than a BXB line. My fold to river probe was or is insanely high because of my range construction.

Looking forward to more stuff! Any free info you want to share Thank you!

I don't see myself making a coaching for profit stable, it just never
appealed to me.

This might work as I've seen more vloggers start doing this as well. More so in the live realm. You have other CFPs that don't actually bankroll anyone but they want 40-60% of your profits for their coaching, which seems outrageous to me, especially if you are putting in 40 hour weeks. I think 15-25% is way more attractive, but it does require the honor system.

Youtube definitely seems like the best way to get more students. Hungry Horse kind of exploded with this method. Just advertising their bootcamp and discord after their bootcamp for extended help. Marc gave away a lot of knowledge in his videos and gets people to sign up when it resonates with them or they start getting results and want even better results, than they sign up for bootcamp or base camp.

Good luck in this journey.

I'm just adding to this comment at 42:10 you have the ace turn. 42:17 you have the Q turn where The 99-66 are not bluffing as much. We use more of the AJs ATs. On the turn Ace, Kx is too strong to bluff and the small pairs are the bottom of our range. 87s becomes a nice double barrel blocking 88 one of the strongest hands in opponents range. We are turning a lot of 2nd pair hands into bluffs. K83-J we are turning AJs into a bluff or merged value!?!?

thejericho2 mentioned how hands like 76s float the flop but hands like TT fold. If 76s picks up equity is it to XRAI vs a double barrel?

43:20 I notice T9s is bluffing, but JTs isn't bluffing. Is this just because of the blockers to JJ/TT? Feels like JTs has to bluff in this spot. Jack high is never winning at showdown. Also what is QJs doing? Is that a value bet? Bluff? A little confusing seeing JT high check and QJs 2nd pair betting. on this AQ287 board.

37:55 T#2 AsQc on T32cc-2-A board. I think I make this same mistake as the student as well. You mentioned AcXc can call. I'm curious what worse hand calls if we have AcQx?

22:15 what is the thought process on bluff catching a slightly worse hand KJ or JT? Do we want to block KT on Q92-3-J? Do we want to unblock the polar errors of KJ JT? Given hero bet 1bb flop. I think 2nd pair ace kicker becomes a pure call. We also bet most Qx on the turn, so any thoughts on being high up in our range?

22:55 is extreme projection of his own strategy of 2/3 or X. The student thinks he's the teacher. Saying the sizing is never a king but has a king lol.

IAmNeo there was a post you wrote some where above, I couldn't seem to find it, but "finding your North Star" really helped me with Varela above question.

I had some of my worst results of my career trying to implement a redline strategy into live low stakes cash games. Misapplying some spots, but just identifying as a blueline player the last couple of weeks my results have really started to take off.

Just finished reading almost the entire journal after finding it on MMs. Congrats on the success. There were a few key things that stood out to me that I find make the most money.

1) Ass in the chair. Click the damn buttons!
2) Bots are not adjusting, so your strategy can be comically imbalanced.

Most of your sessions seem to start after midnight, then the most recent ones where you had the most success seem to start a little before midnight. Is there a reason you start your sessions so late at night?

Also noticed and maybe it's just in my mind. When your redline was going up the results were more of a roller coaster, but still winning. Then redline more flat or slightly down and you have crushing results. Any thoughts on this redline / blue line type strategy?

Some times I feel like when I'm trying to redline I end up forcing aggression. Blue line strategy is more relaxed and letting the game come to me. Just table selection and finding the soft games. When I redline I feel like the bluff is either slightly +EV or a total punt if I make one bad assumption, so I feel more at home when I'm just focused on blue line and discipline.

7:04 T#2 Q22r-4ss when you barrel the turn are we giving up the river unless a spade hits?

11:45 T#1 Q23ss 3BP IP PFR when you cb 1/2 pot 8bb and get XR to 32bb. I would think I would have very little fold equity against that large raise size. How do you find the courage to 3B bluff jam there?

45:00 you mentioned the BB might be tilted from being stacked a couple hands prior and when you face the cold 4bet HJ vs SB vs BB, I'm shocked you would fold QQ here. The snap 4bet might be a strong range, but it's not a very big 4bet. Would like to see at least a call.

I think b50-B70 with the more vulnerable pairs and can stick your 2 pair+ hands into a B33 size and let them continue drawing dead while the bigger size gets a a bit more protection.

Or do we lose too much value if we put our strong hands into a small size and 1 pair hands into a bigger size?

I think there is something to be said about mental game in posture. While you did play very well as usual and took some bad beats or coolers. You can see how your posture changes drastically from running bad to ending your session and feeling a sense of relief that it's over. Your one of the coaches I look forward to watching the most. Mostly because play & explain but also just the consistency of the fundamentals and simplifications. Looking forward to future 2 parters as you mentioned.

20:00 T#3 How are you deciding to cbet IP 3 way on 762r? If you had a spade in your hand are you checking? You mentioned it being an exploit, what are you looking for when determining whether to bet or not? Then the turn barrel as well after being called in 2 places. Seems scary to me. We block some of the draws and bdfd floats... Really curious about this hand.

Edit* you went into more detail in the replayer shortly after saying its a nice spot to barrel any 2 here. I guess we are doing this with king high and worse sdv? If we had something like 98s double blocking their draws are we taking a free card? Or just firing 3? Get the AQ AJs 88 87s to fold. Also if we have AX are we giving up the turn blocking some of their folds?

36:30 How they expand their value range to potentially get called by worse is shocking! I figured it was going to be a chop if you get called. Hand is very shocking to see TP no kicker use X-OB-OB.

38:00 you mentioned 8x is good enough for a block size on the AK8-4-A board. What worse do you get called by if you are value betting 8x?

I still can't wrap my head around this $2,500 cap in the rake.

3:45 you mentioned OOP PFC doesn't want to use a lot of 1/3 turn probe sizing because IP can continue with a lot of over cards. Isn't that kind of the point when you have a strong hand like 2 pair, straight, or set? You want to put pressure on a hand like ace high that is just drawing dead?

18:00 I really like Hero's explanation on why he bet the flop on 552hh. Where if he checks back his skill set doesn't allow him to bluff or bluff catch later streets very effectively, so he just bets the flop to deny equity now and gain some value from the King and queen high hands that XC.

This is one of my leaks as well, but mostly SRP OOP PFR. cbetting OOP works better for me because I mess up a lot of XC or XR hands.

Video suggestion: The 3 Biggest Mistakes Poker Players Make During Downswings because hero mentioned he was on a downswing (28:16) when he played these hands and a lot of them looks like forced aggression. RFI 97o in the SB, 3 betting K3s BvB (ok), 3 betting large 2.5 to 13.5 SB vs LJ. Hero is just doing a bit too much imo. Even if all these plays are +EV if they make your mental game suffer where you can't get in volume, I would rather put in more volume and have less of a win rate. 4 hours at 5bb/100 is going to be better than 2 hours at 7.5bb/100.

12:30 hand #1 if hero faces a block size on the river, do we just fold or are you tempted to raise all in?

13:20 hand #2 I'm not sure I like this hand. The 2.5 > 13.5 LJ vs SB seems like too big of a size preflop. Then going 50-50-50 for postflop the hands that hero is trying to fold out with JJ 99 QJs etc I feel like they either fold pre, flop, or turn. Range is already so narrowed going to the river, I'm not sure what hands fold. I ran this on wizard and it's approved +EV bluff but only worth 1bb. I feel like villain's range is going to be tighter IP vs the half pot cbet on the flop. I don't think players float as wide, so the hands like AJc ATc KTc etc that we need get to fold in theory have already folded the flop.

25 min you talk about "try and think about what your opponent is thinking." Reminded me of a big leak I have. Where SRP OOP PFR it's supposed to be a low frequency cbet. However, theory does this because IP is supposed to stab often which captures more value for your strong hands. Because I was missing so many XR spots here I funneled myself into a XF too often where cbetting even for range does better than my current passive tendency.

So now I choose an incorrect path in theory but it works for me to avoid my bigger leaks.

Is the rake $600? Limped pot has 11.4k in the middle but 5k+5k+1k+1k

Another hand 15k open. Pot should be 32k but it's only 30.4k, so $1600 rake?

Absolutely insane. Better off taking a flight and playing live in Vegas like Berkey and airball. Only paying like $400/hr to play HU.

42:30 On A88dd-4ss-7 hero rfi btn vs bb 3 handed. You took a X-X-C75 line. Is this standard? Feels very cautious.

46:30 SRP IP PFC when HJ splits his sizes 2.5 to 3bb and you flat JJ and get a QT9-J-X run out. Nice spidey instincs here preflop.

30:29 T#2 wiz likes calling J9o here 3 ways vs the 2bb CO RFI. But does mix folds vs the 2.25x. I guess with the higher rake environment it can also be folded. Very close.

33:55 T#3 flatting SB QJs to keep the bb rec in, but then BB squeezes small. Pretty hand, but what would be the default continue range here given the 3B range is so tight from recs on average? You almost folded preflop, then took a interesting line postflop because you said you would play your sets this way with a XC-D line MW.
On the river 3c completing the flush you mentioned villain would check back 2 pairs and sets. Would he shove the turn with these hands as well? I'm not sure what he has that calls the turn instead of fast plays. TT / 88 ?

*I posted the comment before hearing your full thought process. It appears we are on the same page here with what villain possibly could have had.

This one back fired against AsQc, so I'm guessing if villain has AdQx AxQd he is more likely to check. Maybe only using the 2/3 cbet or X strategy when he double blocks the bdfd. I think your thought process was great though.

29:00 T#1 really high level to call this turn barrel. Because the flop was a large bet, villain shouldn't have a ton of Ax in range, so more weighted towards bluffs QJ JT etc.

13:30 when bluffing 5x on AK5 on the turn, Francisco did a video on this where if we used a small bet on the flop we want to bluff more turned sets and 2 pair, if we use a larger cbet, we want to use the 5x.

AK5-6 board. Small b25-Ob line bluff 6x
AK5-6 board. Larger cbet - Barrel turn bluff more 5x

Thank you Frankie Carson simplified mda to have a blanket approach where the sample is big enough is very helpful. The example you gave of just thinking about how big or small the pot size is and how often people bluff in each goes a long way.