Schorle
14 points
Hi Guys,
I am interested in your opinion on the chart.
In my own modest opinion I think variance hit me negatively in the last 30k+ hands.
On NL 5/10 (USD) there is a gap of more than 60 USD between Cash won (actually) and Cash won all-in adjusted.
in Other words: I basically made the right decisions from an EV perspective, but got sucked out very often.
Am I missing something? How do you interpret the graph?
Best regards
Olaf
March 28, 2026 | 1:19 p.m.
UTG: $13.85 (139 bb)
MP: $19.82 (198 bb)
CO: $11.02 (110 bb)
BU (Hero): $17.05 (171 bb)
SB: $21.66 (217 bb)
BB: $9.64 (96 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with 9♣ 9♦
1 fold, MP raises to $0.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.25, 2 players fold
Flop: ($0.65) 6♠ 2♦ T♥ (2 players)
MP bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.80, MP calls $0.60
Turn: ($2.25) A♣ (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.88, MP calls $0.88
River: ($4.01) 7♠ (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $3.83, MP folds
Villain is 25/18 over 100 hands.
The Pre-Flop call is pretty standard, a 3bet every now and then may also be good to balance our 3bet ranges and also our call ranges.
On the Flop I deem my hand to be quite strong with Villains range having many broadways and also some high pocket pairs but also middle pocket pairs like 7s, 8s but also low pps. With monster hands he probably would just check to induce a bet as the Flop is quite dry and also rainbow.
Thus I decide to raise as I estimate a decent Fold Equity for most of Villains hands and also want to protect my hand.
Last but not least a call of Villain would increase the probability he has quite strong hands like AT, KT, JJ+ or in very few cases AK or AQ while he sees me bluffing or semi-bluffing with Suited connectors like 87, 98. In the case Villain has a quite strong hand, I could save money on further streets (fold to any substantial bet of Villain) or buy a Free card when the Turn gets checked to me (drawing for a runner runnner straight or a set).
The Turn should hit a fair amount of Villain's hands (over the half of his Flop calling range I guess). However there are still some hands like JJ, QQ, KK, KT which do not like the Ace. Checking behind would mean, Villain would probably go for the SD and play bet or c/c on the River. For a call on the River my hand has not enough value in most cases, especially on River cards like J, K, Q or T PLUS and a bet only on the River does not have much FE given the quite small pot compared to the Stacks; a bet would be very thin or without any Value. Also with another bet I could continue my story of either a set or AT for example. Plus a semi-bluff would be possible If I had a suited connector.
Eventually I decide to bet about 1/3 pot giving me a profitable play If Villain folds in about 1/4 of the cases. Plus I build up potential FE on some River cards as the stacks or quite big.
Villains call tells me two things: his hand is good enough to call but too weak to re-raise which he would do often with a monster or top two to protect his hand against some draws.
So the most likely hands are AK, AQ, AJ. - KQ, KJ or JJ, QQ, KK are less likely.
The 7 on the River does not help Villain obviously because if he had a monster (besides a straight, which is very unlikely because of my blockers) he would bet for anticipated Value as he should put me on something with SD-value.
On the other hand with my 9s I could try to rep a finished straight holding 98 which would also fit to my plays on Flop and Turn. Also 76 could be one of the more possible hands in my range.
As check behind is no real option if I want to win the pot, because against most of Vilains hands I am behind I decide to bet large (pot size - the amount of 4 USD displayed is with rake) also to rep a finished straight. The rationale is that Villain has a real decision to call with hands like AK, AQ, JJ+ (which are most likely IMO) if he does not put me on air (my potential bluffing range in this spot should be quite small).
To my satisfaction Villain folds the River after tanking.
Any thoughts ?
What is Villains most likely range in this spot?
Thx in advance!
Dec. 3, 2025 | 9:24 p.m.
Steve Paul
Thx.
Rereading the hand I missed that the pfr check/called flop, I thought he cbet. Given that I don't hate reraising turn. His line makes no sense for a strong hand after x/c flop 3 way
This is quite interesting.
Thinking about the assumed weak hand of Villain makes a re-raise quite reasonable. Curious how the hand would have developed If I re-raised Villain to lets say 7 USD - making it 4.30 USD to call for Villain vs. a pot of 12.33 USD (1:3 pot odds).
Would probably have led to a Fold.
All-in re-raise would definitely lead to a Fold.
A re-reraise of Villain would lead to a jam from my side, I guess given the many outs.
tesla79
Appreciate your thoughts regarding the notes on Villain but as Steve says, it could be misleading in future spots.
Nov. 26, 2025 | 1:35 p.m.
tesla79
Yeah, thx, I think you nailed it. All arguments are reasonable.
C/c on the Turn should be the most GTO decision.
Here is the result of the Hand:
River: ($8.03) K♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $21.99 (all-in), Hero calls $12.43 (all-in)
Total pot: $32.89 (Rake: $1.48)
Showdown:
CO shows A♥ Q♣ (a straight, Ten to Ace)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 70%, Flop: 47%, Turn: 66%, River: 100%)
BB (Hero) shows Q♠ 9♠ (a straight, Nine to King)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 30%, Flop: 53%, Turn: 34%, River: 0%)
CO wins $31.41
After the hand I really thought the all-in-call to be a bad decision (would Villain really shove with worse hands? still some room for an exit, as the SPR is 1,5).
Nov. 26, 2025 | 10:17 a.m.
Could you please elaborate why the Turn lead is no good idea? Risk of getting raised (especially facing a shove?) ? What about the 3-way aspect?
I can slightly guess why it is not optimal, but I would like to have some more thoughts if possible.
Greetings
Nov. 26, 2025 | 7:36 a.m.
PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Pokeit - https://pokeit.co/convert
UTG: $8.71 (87 bb)
MP: $8.30 (83 bb)
CO: $25.55 (256 bb)
BU: $8.99 (90 bb)
SB: $9.63 (96 bb)
BB (Hero): $15.99 (160 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with Q♠ 9♠
2 players fold, CO raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20
Flop: ($0.95) J♦ T♠ 5♠ (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $0.56, Hero calls $0.56, CO calls $0.56
Turn: ($2.63) 4♥ (3 players)
Hero bets $1.06, CO raises to $2.70, BU folds, Hero calls $1.64
River: ($8.03) K♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $21.99 (all-in), Hero??
Some comments and thoughts:
Villain has 26/21 on only 19 hands. 3bet PF 20 %, WTSD: 33 %. So not much meaning in the stats.
Pre-Flop call in the BB with Q9 suited is pretty standard given the good pot odds (> 1:3).
The Flop comes in quite well as I have many outs to make a strong hand against all kind of ranges, so c/c is also pretty standard. Even c/r is an option, although a re-raise would put us on a real decision (re-raise probably only with top two, set or nut flush draw with straight outs like AJss).
Only critic would be the call oop without knowing COs (Villains) action after my call. But any raise from CO would also make a re-evaluation necessary.
The Turn is no real brick but also no real help to many of COs and BTNs range. Instead of c/c I decide to lead into both Villains hoping to put pressure on at least the CO b/c cold calling without closing the action (knowing BTNs reaction) is quite risky. Going 3way to the River is no nice outlook. Also with my 2/5 block bet I try to have get some pot control b/c I have no interest in calling a 3/4 or potsize bet OOP with only 3nd best flush and 2nd best straight draw. Plus I have some decent Fold Equity against possible hands in COs and BTNs range like KQ, AK, AQ, AT, 98 or also Q9.
The call of Villains (CO) light raise is pretty standard I guess. Folding (even OOP) is no option with 1:4 pot odds and re-raising with deep stacks and still quite high SPRs also not b/c I only get isolated against hands that crush me (sets especially but also Top two pair). However I have to keep in mind that I have also high reverse implied odds, when a spade occurs on the River given there is a certain chance Villain has a higher Flush draw like KQss, A4ss or AKss or other Ax ss combos). The SPR is getting low but there is still room for an exit.
The River looks quite nice as I finish my straight but only the 2nd nuts. I think about a small bet like 1/3 pot or max 1/2 pot to get the chance to fold If Villains raises me (depending on the size of the raise). However I assume Villain does not put me on a straight/flush draw combos but more on a pure Flush draw. This would mean a check to induce a bluff could be promising. Also Villain would bet hands in this spot that I would beat like sets or KJ, maybe even JT or AK.
Villains All-In-Raise totally suprises me. I think Villains shove shows a capped ranges (missed flush draw with 98ss, J9ss, 87ss, 76ss or total air, while last one is very very unlikely OR the Nuts with AQ). I think even KK would not jam in this spot on the river or only if he puts me on two pair.
One good reason to fold is the massive overbet (almost 3 x potsize) and my remaining stack of 12.40 USD. Having invested roughly 1/4 of my stack leaves me a real option to fold but what if Villain puts me only on a missed FD and does not have much either? Or would he Value bet thin with AK? Would he Jam with KJ?
The more I think about the spot the harder it gets whilst I am in the middle of the hand....(is must be the surprise factor of Villains shove which makes the decition extra spicy).
Thoughts anyone??
Thx in advance and happy to discuss!
Nov. 24, 2025 | 5:07 p.m.
Here is the end of the hand:
Hero calls $1.96
Total pot: $6.99 (Rake: $0.39)
Showdown:
CO shows 9♥ J♦ (high card, King)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 50%, Flop: 39%, Turn: 23%, River: 0%)
MP (Hero) shows 3♦ 3♣ (a pair of Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 50%, Flop: 61%, Turn: 77%, River: 100%)
MP (Hero) wins $6.60
Villains showed air in terms of a missed straight draw.
Representing a straight with 97 is very difficult. T8 or 86ss is more legit.
Most Villains would not call Flop and Turn with this bad draw (only gutshot with high reverse implied odds, drawing only for 2nd best straight) plus against possible Flush.
Also betting the River only makes sense if Villain puts me mostly on missed Flushs or AQ. However with many suited connectors like 87ss, 65ss, 76ss, 89ss he should assume I have SD value.
Nov. 23, 2025 | 1:39 p.m.
Ok, understood!
Only in the sense that I don’t think you’ll become a winning
small-stakes NLHE player by barreling two streets with 33 versus an
unknown and then slamming a river check/raise on them. :-D
this makes sense to me in most spots. Even if you are slightly value betting (with small or medium pocket pair on board with higher cards) oop on the Flop or the Turn a check raise on the River would in most comparable spots lead to nothing but pain if he calls you with value hands (Top pair, Top kicker; middle pair, top kicker; slow played overpair; hit set on Turn or River) or the Nuts (slow play).
I also observe in small stakes NLHE that passivity oop means usually weak hands (A or K high, low pair, gutshot, BD flush draw), but you have to be careful when it comes to strong players who adapt once they see you are often aggressive in position. Their checking range on every street is way more strong then a weak players checking range (including more Value or Made hands and not only draws).
I think besides stats like VPIP/PFR, WTSD, flop to Flop/Turn/River bet regarding Villain help you to identify the right spot against the right player.
Nov. 23, 2025 | 1:30 p.m.
"So I’m mainly thinking about those situations where the original raiser checks — whether IP or OOP — which usually indicates a pretty weak hand. In these cases they almost always end up folding by the river at the latest. And if they don’t, then it’s worth making a note that this particular player’s check-range is actually strong."
Thx for the clarifying, but does this suit to the hand?
I justcheck on the RIver OOP. Understanding your post correctly, this would mean, Villain is in a decent amount of cases bluffing (in terms of a probe bet) on the River. This would make my decision to call on the River easier (esp. in this spot, where the 8 on the river should mostly be a brick assuming Villains call Flop and call Turn range (see also my thought process in the original post).
Happy for another reply from you ;-)
Nov. 22, 2025 | 1:41 p.m.
Thx.
You said:
"In small-stakes Hold’em, I think there’s much more value in responding to passivity with aggression. So I’d recommend a lot of floats and probes."
I experienced the same overall at the micros. There are many passive players, who overfold Flops and Turns oop and are very unbalanced.
What do you mean with "probes"?
Nov. 20, 2025 | 10:06 a.m.
I would only call with KQs against a 3bet-range this tight if 1) I would see a lot of fold equity post flop (meaning also that Villain has at least 100 BB before the 3 bet) and 2) I would have position on Villain.
Thus I would have to rely on robust stats (large sample size) regarding Villain to be able to assess my fold equity post flop.
Nov. 19, 2025 | 9:10 p.m.
Hi poker enthusiasts!
I've got a fresh hand, which I deem interesting b/c Hero faces a complete unknown Villain with a River bet.
Let's get into detail:
UTG: $17.14 (171 bb)
MP (Hero): $11.93 (119 bb)
CO: $16.42 (164 bb)
BU: $5.26 (53 bb)
SB: $10.00 (100 bb)
BB: $13.75 (138 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with 3♦ 3♣
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, 3 players fold
Flop: ($0.75) T♣ 2♣ K♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.36, CO calls $0.36
Turn: ($1.47) 6♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, CO calls $0.80
River: ($3.07) 8♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.96
Hero???
I think the Flop bet is legit due b/c I often represent Top pair or second pair. Plus my hand has too much equity to fold to a float, b/c Villain can have anything.
Considering a "standard reg" range he often has Ax, middle pocket pair, some broadways (KQ, KJ and QJ especially) and also some flush draws.
Against many of these hands I have a nice Fold Equity. Also with half pot bet I just need to be successfull in only 1 in 3 cases. Plus I buy myself a Turn card to hit my set (asuming he calls in many cases) with high implied odds against Kx hands.
The Turn should not improve Villains a large portion of Villains hands and thus is no real threat to me. Given that many Turns are getting folded by Villains at the micro stakes I decide to Cbet again (high FE). Additionally my pot equity is still quite high and I bet higher to protect my hand.
The River can improve some hands from Villain (98ss, 97ss, pocket 8s). However this is only a quite small amound of his possible hands. I decide not to bet b/c there are no weaker hands that would call me (no reason for Value bet). I hope to get to the SD without calling a bet but if Villain bets, he could bet some missed draws (QJ, AJ, J9, 54ss, 75ss) and calling is a real option.
Betting 2/3 pot on this River from Villains standpoint only makes real sense with hands like AK, KT or a smaller two pair or a set OR with a bluff (capped betting range in my opinion).
If he puts me on AK, KQ, KJ he often check behind.
If he puts me on air, he does not have to bet If he hit anyhing or has a pocket pair.
What should Hero do?
Thank you in advance for your comments.
Greeting from good old Germany
Nov. 19, 2025 | 12:19 p.m.
Hey Steve,
thanks for your reply.
Can you explain "Looking at a stat like WTSD with that few hands is really not a good idea (it's probably 1/8, which is ~nothing)"?
with 1/8 you refer to the 12.50 % WTSD?
Nov. 14, 2025 | 7:07 p.m.
Thank you tesla79 for your contribution!
Here is the ending:
Hero bets $1.30, SB folds
Total pot: $4.50 (Rake: $0.25)
MP (Hero) wins $4.25
Some thoughts:
Villain was 23/18 with 11 % 3bet PF, so clearly above average. Thats the main ratio for my 4 Bet (.
His WTSD is only 12.50 %, so I chosed to bet the flop mainly for FE.
It is very unlikely he has a Q, so his range is capped much between air and strong hands.
His checking range are strong hands like Aces, Kings and Jacks.
But his air range is also quite large given the high 3bet % especially from the Blinds.
His aggression frequency is with 17.65 % very low, so this means in this spot (check on the flop) he often has nothing.
The sample size is about 150 hands.
Any additional comments would be much appreciated!
Nov. 13, 2025 | 2:20 p.m.
HI Folks,
I am interested in your opinion on this hand:
**PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Pokeit - https://pokeit.co/convert
UTG: $15.34 (153 bb)
MP (Hero): $11.48 (115 bb)
CO: $10.00 (100 bb)
BU: $18.03 (180 bb)
SB: $29.52 (295 bb)
BB: $12.71 (127 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with T♠ T♣
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 players fold, SB 3-bets to $1.20, 1 fold, Hero 4-bets to $2.20, SB calls $1
Flop: ($4.50) Q♣ 3♥ Q♥ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ????
I think this spot is not crystal clear so I would like to have some views from you.
DANKE! ;-)
Oct. 30, 2025 | 3:27 p.m.
Thx for your thoughts.devwil, especially on the need of aggression in his spot.
You say: "Against a microstakes unknown, I think you generally just want to keep the pot small(er) with a strong non-nut hand like this and get to showdown."
I think from the Turn on I exactly did this. However the pot may had been smaller if Hero checks the flop, as there is a fair chance Villain checks behind the flop.
The clearest mistake is probably to raise this marginal hand preflop.out of position.
Villain showed As Jd 9d 6s
Nov. 20, 2019 | 6:15 a.m.
SB: $10.57 (Hero)
BB: $22.33
UTG: $2.96
MP: $11.61
CO: $27.43
BB wins $19.21
Rake is $0.85
Nov. 17, 2019 | 6:26 p.m.
thiagohuang, you wrote: "How often at least 1 player match hand range AA? (given that you have this hand) And the answer is: 33.2%"
in this case Hero didn't have AAxx. So shouldn't the percentage be significantly higher than 33,2 % ??*
Nov. 15, 2019 | 5:57 p.m.
Thx for your views and your aspect of the dry board, which minimizes the probability of villain raising a pure draw in this spot.
Nov. 14, 2019 | 1:39 p.m.
Thx.
I think you are basically right, although my small cbet could induce more bluffs/semi-bluffs with fold equity than a cbet in potsize for example.
I would add to your last sentence that any player strongly tends to raise a monster draw in a multi way pot..
Nov. 13, 2019 | 8:34 p.m.
SB: $11.05
BB: $15.07 (Hero)
UTG: $9.59
MP: $10.46
CO: $10.00
BB lost and shows a pair of Kings.
BN wins $22.87
Rake is $1.02
Thanks for the confirmation, Darren.
You are right, around the 20k hand mark I had two bad sessions on one day with a total loss of ~10 BI which was to a significant part the result of tilt. Quitting sometimes is the best solution.
One hand example would be the following:
PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
UTG: $5.02 (50 bb)
MP: $10.98 (110 bb)
CO (Hero): $16.79 (168 bb)
BU: $10.00 (100 bb)
SB: $15.87 (159 bb)
BB: $5.23 (52 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 4♦ A♦
UTG raises to $0.20, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20, BTN 3-bets to $1.20, 3 players fold, Hero 4-bets to $2.40, BTN 5-bets to $10 (all-in), Hero calls $7.60
Flop: ($20.35) K♣ K♠ K♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: ($20.35) Q♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($20.35) 6♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $20.35 (Rake: $0.92)
Showdown:
BU shows J♥ J♠ (a full house, Kings full of Jacks)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 67%, Flop: 83%, Turn: 88%, River: 100%)
CO (Hero) shows 4♦ A♦ (three of a kind, Kings)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 33%, Flop: 17%, Turn: 13%, River: 0%)
BU wins $19.43
Without tilt I would have not played called the 5bet shove from Villain. However Villain was 29/27 with 18 % 3BET percentage from the BTN (300 hands sample size).
April 2, 2026 | 11:51 a.m.